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Urban Legend-Bakken Shale Formation

July 6th, 2010 · 146 Comments- add yours

I’ve known about the Bakken Shale Formation for some time, and I’ll try to shed some light on this “Urban legend.” which is full of half-truths and originally circulated to build circulation P.T. Barnum style in an oil and gas newsletter. 

At the initial circulation of the legend, oil prices were climbing rapidly toward their record peak of US$145, reached in July 2008. Mainstream economists were predicting anywhere from $200 to $1,000 per barrel of oil (bbl). 

Note: A barrel of oil contains 42 gallons. 

In truth, the Bakkan Formation in the northern Midwest and Canada has had drilling activity for more than 50 years.  In that time, it has produced 111 million bbl, with 70 million produced in the last 10 years due to advanced techniques of extraction. 

As of October 2007, it was producing 75,000 bbl per day from 951 wells or only 79 bbl per day (that’s about twice as much as the Gulf Oil leak is currently spewing from one well). 

The total estimate of recoverable oil is 3.6 billion bbl and that is considered a VERY optimistic estimate.  To put it into perspective, 3.6 billion bbl is about what America consumes in six months (at 7.6 billion bbl per year) and it will take more than 20 years to recover that much from the Bakken.

 The April 2008 “report” is only a 2-page summary giving an extrapolated estimate of “undiscovered” and “technically recoverable” oil less reserves already known.  The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimate of 503 billion bbl is not the economically recoverable amount, but an estimate of every drop down there. 

The estimate of recovering 10% of the oil is also highly optimistic (i.e. every well drilled hits a reservoir).  The claim of enough crude to fully fuel the American economy until 2041 @ $16 per barrel is figmentation. 

In truth, The Bakken Formation oil is found between layers of shale.  The depth of the oil shale runs from a few thousand feet down in Canada to up to 2 MILES (10,000 feet) straight down in the U.S.  And, the Bakken layer of oil shale is a maximum of 150 feet thick and thinner in most areas.

It ain’t Jeb Clampett’s back yard.

The Stansberry Report Online (4/20/2006) reports 2 Trillion bbl at 1,000 feet beneath the surface.  Total figmentation, since it grabbed the smallest distance ventured (which is in Canada) with the highest undiscovered estimate possible. 

While there may be some reservoirs, most require high technology to extract 1 to 5 percent of the oil (average 2 percent).  The risk is high for an operator to spend $3 to $5 million on a well with no assurance of a strike.  There are plenty of “dry holes” right next to a strike.

Better reserve areas depend on porosity (how empty is the rock) and permeability (how easily fluid can flow through the rock).  The Bakken Shale formation comes in near zero on both counts.  High porosities and permeabilities are found in Saudia Arabia and the Middle East, the North Sea and the Gulf of Mexico (big surprise!).

The Stansberry Report also says environmentalists and others have blocked efforts (not true) and asks how can we NOT be extracting the oil?  We are. 

Remember, drilling has been going on for 50+ years.  There are about 1,700 wells (October 2009), and more on the way.  Environmentalists are concerned because of the high pollution (ground and air) caused by the drilling methods. 

In 2005 President Bush mandated extraction.  The Bakken Shale formation sits under Federal land, so in 2006, Marathon Oil bought 200,000 acres to drill 300 wells.  Texas-based XTO energy also bought 352,000 acres from the Fed. 

Take a look at this report on the Bakken.  It covers the issue in great detail. 

http://www.nosmokeblown.com/?p=1962

These links will tell you more than you ever wanted to know about crude oil prices.

http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_of_petroleum

This link will tell you about investment opportunities in oil companies developing  drilling startegies in the Bakken Shale formation.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/250056-oasis-petroleum-a-pure-bakken-three-forks-play?source=yahoo

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